Biden Is The Riskiest Choice Of All

As Donald Trump readies himself for re-election, the sense of nervousness among his opposition is palpable. It’s an odd state of affairs when you consider the broad spectrum that opposition covers. It doesn’t just include Democrats, from progressive to centrist, but also disaffected old-style Republicans, and a great many independents as well. Yet despite this collection, there is good reason for the anti-Trump camp to be concerned about 2020.

As the incumbent, Trump has a built-in advantage, and one that is hard to overcome. In the 19th century, it was not uncommon for incumbents to lose their re-election bids; it happened eight times. But since then, only five incumbents have lost, if we exclude Gerald Ford who was never elected in the first place. Between Herbert Hoover in 1932 and Jimmy Carter in 1980, no incumbent lost and since then, only George H.W. Bush joined the dubious list.

That hardly spells four more years of Trump, but it does speak of the great advantage an incumbent enjoys. He rarely faces a serious challenge in the primaries, has full control of his party’s electoral machine, and obviously enjoys enormous name recognition. In Trump’s case, he also has four years of pleasing much of his base. All the evidence indicates that he has lost virtually none of the support that formed the foundation of his cult following in 2016.